Yesterday

• The Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow yesterday told MPs that there will be no ‘meaningful vote’ on PM May’s deal unless a new deal that is not “substantially the same” is brought to the table.
• Mr Bercow cited a convention dating back to 1604 that a defeated motion could not be brought back in the same form during the course of a parliamentary session (BBC).
• BBC Political editor Laura Kuenssberg said that the Speaker’s judgment makes it less likely that Mrs May will ask for a short extension and we will likely see a long delay to the Brexit date.
• According to Bloomberg, Mrs May had been working to put her deal back to the House of Commons for approval by Wednesday, with a vote penciled in for Tuesday. The Speaker’s ruling makes it likely that the prime minister will have to request an extension which could delay Brexit by “9 to 12 months”.
• Junior Brexit Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said on Monday that he believes there is still a chance parliament would approve PM May’s deal this week.
• GBP/EUR opened at 1.1737, traded a high of 1.1749, a low of 1.1636 and closed down 0.45% at 1.1684.
• Sterling also weakened against the US dollar with cable opening at 1.3294 and trading a low of 1.3183 before closing at 1.3253.
• EUR/USD rallied by a tenth of a percent on Monday after opening at 1.1319 and closing at 1.1335.

Overnight

• Australian HPI q/q came in weaker than expected at -2.4% vs -1.9% expected.
• GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/JPY are trading at 1.8689 (+0.19%), 1.9341 (+0.02) and 147.57 (-0.08%).

Today

• At 9.30am we expect to see the latest UK average earnings index 3m/y figure. The previous figure was 3.4% and today’s is expected to come in at 3.2%. The UK unemployment rate is expected to be released at the same time.

German ZEW economic sentiment will be released at 10am.

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair	Interbank Rate	% Change on Day
GBP/EUR	1.1686	-0.34
GBP/USD	1.3233	-0.05
EUR/USD	1.1321	+0.16
AUD/USD	0.7086	+0.34

 

Time (GMT)	Region	Data Release	Forecast	Previous
10.00	EUR	Final CPI y/y	1.5%	1.5%
TBC	GBP	Consumer Inflation Expectations		3.2%
12.30	CAD	Manufacturing Sales m/m	0.4%	-1.3%
12.30	USD	Empire State Manufacturing Index	10.1	8.8
13.15	USD	Capacity Utilization Rate	78.5%	78.2%
13.15	USD	Industrial Production m/m	0.4%	-0.6%
14.00	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	95.5	93.8
14.00	USD	JOLTS Job Openings	7.27M	7.34M

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