- Very little on the data front yesterday morning.
- Italian CPI came in at +0.2% as expected on a m/m basis in February.
- The Swedish Krona was the top performer in FX space yesterday morning following the release of much better than expected GDP data. The Swedish economy expanded by +1.2% in the final quarter of 2018, that doubled the +0.6% expected.
- Despite the commons votes in the UK the previous evening the Pound was largely unchanged during yesterday morning’s trading, but perhaps unsurprisingly and given the recent rally, sterling did run out of steam and weaken off a fraction during the afternoon session.
- According to a spokesman for Theresa May a meaningful vote on the PM’s deal could take place sooner that the 12th March but that significant work still needed to be done. He also added that progress had been made with the EU this week.
- The EU’s Michel Barnier reiterated yesterday that they will not change the Irish backstop or reopen the withdrawal agreement.
- The US economy saw annualised growth of +2.6% in the final quarter of 2019, that was up on the +2.2% forecast but still some distance short of the +3.4% growth experience in the previous quarter. That figure also meant that overall the US economy grew by 2.9% in 2018, the fastest growth since the end of the recession.
- Some of the other key data yesterday included:
- Canadian Current Account -15.5Bn (-13.4Bn Exp)
- US Unemployment Claims 225K (221K Exp)
- US Chicago PMI 64.7 (57.3 Exp)
Overnight
- The US Fed’s recent move towards a more dovish tone regarding future rate hikes was evident yet again overnight, with US Fed Chair Powell pointing towards unexpectedly weak retail sales data in December as another reason for the Fed to be cautious. Speaking overnight US Fed Member Kaplan also said the US economy was facing a number of downside risks.
- According to Bloomberg news the US and China are preparing a final trade deal that could be signed off within weeks, with a Mid-March meeting between Trump and Xi the aim in order to finalise an agreement which could bring the year long trade war to an end.
- Japan Unemployment Rate 2.5% (2.4% Exp)
- Japan Final Manufacturing PMI 48.9 (48.5 Exp)
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.9 (48.5 Exp)
- German Retail Sales m/m 3.3% (1.9% Exp)
Today
- Key UK data in the form of Manufacturing PMI and Lending to Individuals is first up at 9.30am this morning.
- This afternoon will be dominated by economic data out of Canada but more so the United States.
| Currency Pair | Interbank Rate | % Change on Day |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1654 | -0.09 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3243 | -0.14 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1362 | -0.07 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7094 | +0.01 |
| Time (GMT) | Region | Data Release | Forecast | Previous |
| 09.30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 52.0 | 52.8 |
| 09.30 | GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 4.7Bn | 4.8Bn |
| 10.00 | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| 10.00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 13.30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 13.30 | USD | Personal Spending m/m | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| 14.45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 53.7 | 53.7 |
| 15.00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 55.6 | 56.6 |
| 15.00 | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 95.8 | 95.5 |