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Yesterday

  • The Pound had a solid day’s trading in FX space yesterday but still only regained a fraction of the ground lost over the previous few days.
  • GBP/USD was trading at 1.2225 in the run up to the Federal Reserve meeting, up +0.64% on the day.
  • GBP/EUR had a greater rise of +0.82%, trading at 1.0978 at the close of business.
  • Inflation in the Euro Area declined to 1.1% in July on an annual basis according to figures published yesterday. Having peaked at 1.7% most recently in May, price growth in the Eurozone has continued to fall and remains well below the ECB’s 2% target rate.
  • The overall unemployment rate within the Eurozone was 7.5% in June, that is down from 7.6% in May and also represents the lowest level since July 2008.
  • Eurozone Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.2% as expected (Q2, 2019).
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 156K (150K Exp).
  • The Canadian economy grew by +0.2% in May thanks to a rebound in manufacturing, that was the third consecutive month of growth, following gains of +0.5% and +0.3% in March and April respectively.
Overnight

  • The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis yesterday evening. As widely expected the Fed opted to cut rates by 0.25%, lowering the target rate to 2%-2.25%. President Trump has been one of the biggest critics of the Federal Reserve, consistently stressing his displeasure at the higher interest rates. The move, whilst predicted by most investors and economists, will no doubt have dissapointed Trump who wanted to see a large cut to the rate.
  • There was volatility across financial markets following the meeting, as the Fed have left markets dissapointed and guessing with a more ‘neutral’ than ‘dovish’ message. Essentially their message was one of lets cut rates and see how it goes, rather than sending a clear signal of their next potential move or action.
  • The US Dollar rallied in FX markets as Fed Chair Powell initially stated this would not be the beginning of a long series of rate cuts.
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.9 (49.6 Exp)
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (49.6 Exp)
Today
  • The Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting will of course be the focus of today’s trading. The BOE are widely expected to keep rates on hold but the accompanying statement and Governor Mark Carney’s press conference will set the tone for market expectations going forward.

 

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.0974 +0.02
GBP/USD 1.2115 -0.33
EUR/USD 1.1038 -0.33
AUD/USD 0.6846 +0.02

 

Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 47.7 48.0
12.00 GBP BOE Inflation Report
12.00 GBP BOE Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
12.00 GBP BOE Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
12.00 GBP BOE Monetary Policy Summary
12.30 GBP BOE Governor Carney Speaks
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 212K 206K
14.30 CAD Manufacturing PMI 49.2
14.45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.0
15.00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.7
15.00 USD Construction Spending m/m 0.5% -0.8%

 

https://www.godi.io/market-updates/newsletter-1st-august-2019/

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