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Yesterday

  • Sterling continued to tumble in currency markets yesterday as the threat of a no-deal Brexit continues to loom large and looking ever more likely following the Government’s current rhetoric.
  • GBP/EUR did fall to a near 2-year low of 1.0881 against the Euro, eventually closing the day at 1.0905 and down -0.48%.
  • GBP/USD was back down to the sort of levels witnessed in the immediate aftermath of the referendum result back in 2016, trading a day’s low of 1.2118 before closing at 1.2163.
  • German Prelim CPI m/m 0.5% (0.3% Exp).
  • US Personal Spending m/m 0.3% as expected.
  • US CB Consumer Confidence 135.7 (125.1 Exp)
  • Speaking on the continuing trade saga yesterday, US President Trump said trade talks with China are ‘going well’ and that Beijing was ‘ready to give up a lot’, however the President stopped shot of saying the offer would be accepted, adding ‘there will be a great deal with China or none at all’.
Overnight

  • The lack of economic data released yesterday has been adequately made up for with a raft of data overnight and this morning with a massive beat for German Retail Sales looking like the stand out figure. No great moves in FX space as yet, but there has been a very modest gain for the Pound so far this morning.
  • China Manufacturing PMI 49.7 (49.6 Exp)
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.7 (54.0 Exp)
  • Australia CPI q/q 0.6% (0.5% Exp)
  • Japan Consumer Confidence 37.8 (38.5 Exp)
  • German Retail Sales m/m 3.5% (0.5% Exp)
  • Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.5% (0.6% Exp)
Today
  • Eurozone Inflation and employment data will be in focus this morning.
  • Today’s main event comes this evening however in the form of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. Following months of criticism from President Trump the Fed are widely expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%.
MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.0908 +0.17
GBP/USD 1.2165 +0.15
EUR/USD 1.1152 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.6889 +0.25
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
10.00 EUR Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 1.2%
10.00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 7.5% 7.5%
11.00 EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q -0.1% 0.1%
13.15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 150K 102K
13.30 CAD GDP m/m 0.1% 0.3%
14.45 USD Chicago PMI 51.7 49.7
19.00 USD US Federal Reserve Funds Rate <2.25% <2.50%
19.00 USD US Fed Policy Statement
19.30 USD US Fed Press Conference

 

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