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Yesterday

  • UK wages, including bonuses, jumped to 3.4% in the three months to May according to official data. That was better than the 3.1% forecast and up from a revised 3.2% in April.
  • The number of people claiming unemployment benefit in June was more than double the forecasts at 38,000, however the overall UK unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in the 3 months up to May.
  • Despite the positive jobs data the Pound continued to tumble in FX markets yesterday as a result of those comments from Johnson and Hunt regarding the Irish backstop. The two candidates, one of which will of course replace Theresa May as the next PM of the UK, both stated that they consider the Irish backstop ‘dead’ and vowed to throw it out of any deal they try to negotiate with the EU. That certainly would appear to further ramp up the possibility of a no-deal exit.
  • Sterling slumped to a near 2019 low of 1.1050 against the Euro.
  • Whilst against the US Dollar the Pound traded down to a 27-month low of 1.2396.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment -24.5 (-22.1 Exp)
  • Eurozone Trade Balance 20.2Bn (16.4Bn Exp)
  • IMF Chief Christine Lagarde confirmed her resignation yesterday afternoon as she remains on track to become the next President of the European Central Bank, replacing the out going Mario Draghi. Lagarde, often dubbed the ‘rock star’ of the finance world will also become the first female to lead the ECB if successful.
  • There was a raft of US economic data released yesterday afternoon with the headline Retail Sales print impressing.  Retail Sales grew 0.4% in June, that exceeded the 0.1% expected and was the fourth consecutive month of growth. The number also suggests the US economy is not as fragile as some Fed members have been recently suggesting.

Overnight

  • Ursula von der Layen has been elected as the next EU Commission President. In a narrow vote, von der Layen scraped an absolute majority by just 9 votes, securing 383 of the 733 votes cast. Mrs von der Leyen will replace Jean-Claude Juncker in October.
  • Speaking yesterday evening Fed Chair Powell added further weight to the likelihood of a rate cut later this month. Powell said the central bank will ‘act as appropriate’ given the increased uncertainties and added policymakers had become concerned by a potential for a prolonged shortfall in inflation below the Fed’s 2% target.
Today
  • This morning UK (9.30am) and Eurozone (10.00am) Inflation data headlines.
  • This afternoon there is a raft of US and Canadian data set for release. Canadian Inflation data being the only key print however.

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1056 -0.07
GBP/USD 1.2392 -0.11
EUR/USD 1.1207 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.7011 -0.02

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP CPI y/y 2.0% 2.0%
09.30 GBP PPI Input m/m -1.0% 0.0%
10.00 EUR Eurozone Final CPI y/y 1.2% 1.2%
13.30 CAD CPI m/m -0.3% 0.4%
13.30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.6% -0.6%
13.30 USD Building Permits 1.30M 1.29M
13.30 USD Housing Starts 1.26M 1.27M

 

https://www.godi.io/market-updates/newsletter-17th-july-2019/

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