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Yesterday

  • Real wages have grown in the UK according to the latest inflation data with the Consumer Price Index coming in at 2.0% in the 12 months to the end of June, bang-in-line with the Bank of England’s target rate. With the Average Earnings Index hitting 3.6% according to Tuesdays figures it means UK workers real pay is effectively rising.
  • Despite languishing towards 2019 lows against the Euro and 27-month lows against the Dollar for a good part of yesterday morning’s trading, Sterling did bounce back into the afternoon closing the day in positive territory against most of it’s major counterparts.
  • GBP/USD closed the day up +0.34% at 1.2450, whilst GBP/EUR closed up +0.24% at 1.1090.
  • Eurozone Final CPI y/y 1.3% (1.2% Exp)
  • The Canadian Dollar was one currency that Sterling didn’t make any headway against yesterday, following some better than expected GDP data for Canada. Expecting a fall of -0.3% in June, growth only slipped by -0.2% which meant the annual inflation rate fell to 2.0% from 2.4% in May, however that still represented the third consecutive month in which inflation met or exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
  • Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.6% as expected.
  • US Building Permits 1.22M (1.30M Exp).
  • Speaking before a commons Brexit committee yesterday, UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said the prospect of the UK leaving the EU with no-deal is currently ‘under priced’ and more likely to happen than most people think. Barclay also refused to agree with Boris Johnson’s assessment of a no-deal Brexit being a one million to one chance.
Overnight

  • Despite the fact that US Fed officials are seemingly prepping markets and investors for a rate cut in their next policy meeting, the Fed’s Beige Book (Evidence compiled by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks) which was released last night painted a ‘generally positive’ picture of the US economy despite acknowledging the issues surrounding trade policy.
  • Staying with US trade, talks between the US and China have reportedly stalled as the Trump administration weighs up how to address China’s demands for restrictions to be eased on Tech giant Huawei.
  • Japan Trade Balance -0.01Tn (-0.14Tn Exp)
  • Australia Employment Change 0.5K (9.1K Exp)
  • Australia Unemployment Rate 5.2% as expected
  • Swiss Trade Balance 4.10Bn (3.21Bn Exp)
Today
  • UK Retail Sales will be in focus this morning at 9.30am.
  • Relatively quiet on the data front for the rest of the day.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1094 +0.17
GBP/USD 1.2468 +0.28
EUR/USD 1.1238 +0.13
AUD/USD 0.7033 +0.34

 

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3% -0.5%
09.30 GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
13.30 CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -16.0K
13.30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 5.0 0.3
13.30 USD Unemployment Claims 216K 209K

 

https://www.godi.io/market-updates/newsletter-18th-july-2019/

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