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Yesterday

  • Sterling was the big mover in FX markets yesterday afternoon following Theresa May’s press conference in which she laid out her ‘new’ Brexit deal which she plans to put before the commons for the fourth time in June.
  • The PM’s ‘new deal’ would appear to be her last hurrah as she comes under huge pressure to resign from her own party, and this new offering certainly hasn’t gone down well amongst many Tory MP’s. The new deal aimed at breaking the deadlock, was clearly aimed to appeal to those Labour MP’s in the commons, and included some sweeteners such as:
    • New guarantees on workers’ rights and environmental protections
    • A guarantee of a commons vote on another referendum before the Brexit agreement is ratified
    • A vote on a different customs arrangements
    • A legal obligation for the UK to come up with an alternative to the Northern Ireland backstop by the end of 2020
  • There was an initial spike in Sterling rates as Theresa May’s press conference got underway, with GBP/EUR and GBP/USD racing to 5-day highs of 1.1457 and 1.2812 respectively, however those gains proved incredibly short lived as the Pound came crashing back down.
  • Sterling did however settle at slightly higher levels than the were trading at ahead of Mrs May’s speech.
  • UK Factories have reported the biggest fall in orders since late 2016 this month despite efforts to stockpile goods in advance of the initial March Brexit deadline. The CBI survey revealed monthly order books fell to -10 from -5 in April.
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence -7 (-8 Exp)
  • US Existing Home Sales 5.19M (5.35M Exp)
Overnight

  • It would appear Mrs May’s ‘Bold’ and ‘New’ Brexit offer has already gone down like a led balloon amongst MP’s with little support coming from either side of the commons. That lack of confidence has been reflecting in a further fall of the Pound this morning.
  • According to Fed Member James Bullard the US central bank could cut interest rates if inflation continues to disappoint, even if economic growth maintains its current momentum.
  • New Zealand Retail Sales q/q 0.7% (0.6% Exp)
  • Japan Core Machinery Orders m/m 3.8% (0.0% Exp)
  • Japan Trade Balance -0.11Tn (-0.12Tn Exp)
  • Australia Construction Work Done q/q -1.9% (0.1% Exp)
Today
  • UK economic data firmly in focus this morning with Inflation the headline print at 9.30am.

 

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair Interbank Rate % Change on Day
GBP/EUR 1.1359 -0.22
GBP/USD 1.2672 -0.25
EUR/USD 1.1156 -0.02
AUD/USD 0.6885 +0.03

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Time (GMT) Region Data Release Forecast Previous
09.30 GBP CPI y/y 2.2% 1.9%
09.30 GBP PPI Input m/m 1.1% -0.2%
09.30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 5.2Bn 0.8Bn
13.30 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.8% 0.6%
15.00 USD Fed Member Williams Speaks
19.00 USD Fed Reserve FOMC Minutes
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